On June 18, at the 2021 China International Cotton Conference hosted by the China Cotton Association and the National Cotton Trading Market, the Chairman of the British Kao Trudik Co., Ltd., edited Mr. Michael Edwards, was "global cotton, textile situation analysis A speech with the outlook. Hello everyone, please accept greetings from Liverpool! I hope all China's cotton colleagues are all well. I unfortunately, I can't visit the scene, participate in this Cotton International Conference, thank you very much for China's Cotton Association to give me this opportunity to share some recent trends in the global cotton market through the Internet, and prospects for future. The international cotton market has changed significantly in the past two annual changes. The Ttrugg A index has three different stages in 2019/20 and 2020/21: in the first half of 2019/20, the international cotton price has a steady trend, and the A index breaks in mid-January 2020. 80 cents / pound threshold, this node is just in combination with China and the United States. Since then, with the new crown virus ravage around the world, the international cotton prices have plummeted. Cotton consumption is continuously declining, and the cotton textile supply chain is broken, and the global stock is close to 4 million tons, and the A index is pressed to 60 cents / lbs at the beginning of April. In the last stage, the cotton price has begun to have a long-term obvious recovery process. Compared with the historical trend of international cotton prices, the long-term mean of A index in the past 30 years, slightly less than 74 cents / lbs. Please note that we did not calculate the nominal value of inflation in 30 years. The A index fell to the bottom of the valley in April 2020, which was nearly 20% lower than the long-term mean, and then the time was slowly lifted until a longer-term mean is nearly 34%. What is the explanation of international cotton prices since the April last year? This in fact greatly exceeded many people's expectations. However, this rebound process is not limited to cotton - almost all agricultural products and industrial commodities have a significant recovery. Like many countries, the Fed's response to the epidemic, has had a major impact on international financial markets and stock markets. Contradiction is that although the epidemic has caused various damage to the economy, the foreground is bleak, but the US domestic stock index returns to the level before the epidemic last September, and then set up new high. The commodity futures market, including the New Years, also followed this trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (the main index of US stocks) has extensive correlation with the New Your trend. It can be said that the fundamentals of international cotton supply have played an important role in the entire economic recovery process. After experiencing a serious blow in the second half of 2019/20, international cotton consumption is far more powerful than everyone expected by each person in 2020/21. With the recovery of cotton textile supply chain, the textile factory becomes advantageous in the yarn sales, and the cotton consumption has also begun to show a positive trend. However, our prediction of global consumption in 2021/22 will remain slightly lower than the level of China-US trade situation and the level of new crown virus. Among them, in addition to the recovery of international cotton consumption, the 2020/21 annual cotton balance table is also a result of promoting the promotion of international cotton prices, and the US supply and demand situation clearly has a significant impact on the world market. The reason is that only cotton can be delivered at the New Type contract, and the amount of cotton stock has begun to decline in 2020/21, from nearly 1.6 million tons in the beginning of this year, down 700,000 tons of the year. What happened this happened? In fact, a part of the reason is due to the fact that the cotton production in 2020/21 is lower than expected. The US Department of Agriculture estimated annual cotton output was 4.26 million tons, then the western part of the United States, the West of Dezhou, first occurred, and then other production areas were attacked by a series of hurricanes and tropical storms. The final production was fixed in less than 3.2 million tons. In terms of the demand for beauty, the increase in the export of China is the key to keeping the beauty cotton balance table. The first stage agreement I mentioned in the past, as well as the active procurement of domestic traders and textile plants, which has greatly boosted the export sales of the cotton. So what are the factors affecting the future trend of international cotton prices? As mentioned earlier, the international cotton price is already in a historical high. The A index creates a peak of 98.5 cents / pounds at the end of February this year, and then less than a month of time dropped to 85.1 cents / lbs. As of early May, the new round of rebounded in the international cotton price was mostly lost, and then the beginning of the decline was still there, there is still no clear direction. In addition, the New Today's first few months of the New Your market is frequently fluctuating. In addition to being affected by the undulating macroeconomic impact, the New Your market makes people feel unpredictable, and it also reflects the market for the 2021/22 annual supply and demand. The biggest uncertainty from the shakes of cotton production. In the Western United States, the Western United States, which accounted for about half of the total production of Mei Cot, with the arrival of rainfall in early May, and local drought also got a certain degree of relief. Therefore, cotton cultivation in non-irrigated areas has become possible. However, early severe drought means to avoid large-scale abandoning, and cotton seedlings need to get more rainfall support. It can be seen that the Welcome to abandonment in the United States has great fluctuations, and the final production of the beauty cotton also plays a decisive role. In view of the significant reduction in the initial inventory of 2021/22, and the emergence of water resources throughout the country, the New Your market may be extremely sensitive to the factors related to any negative weather that occur later. For the prospects of the needs of Nuhua and other countries, the market is universal view. Although new crown virus spreads are still very serious in the world, in general, the retail demand for textiles and clothing continues to recover, which is to benefit from being depressed in consumer demand, and active response measures taken in some countries. The yarn sales of the textile factory seems to be gradually improved. Further, the recent international cotton prices have fallen, and the market procurement needs in various countries around the world have been further improved. Buyers from China are active in this round of procurement activities, but cotton merchants generally believe that there will be more demand from China in the future. Therefore, in this sense, China's cotton prices and world cotton prices will be closely converged in the future. Compare China spot prices represented by CC Index and international cotton prices represented by the Cotloy A Index, according to the price of CC INDEX. We can see that the price advantage of imported cotton is not particularly obvious. Until last October, China's domestic cotton prices have risen sharply. Since then, the domestic and foreign spreads began to open, but as of May, the video production time was in mid-May, the difference between the two was about 1,500 yuan. About 10 cents per pound. This international market is in place and seeing emotions, waiting to see private and government buyers from China's significant improvement in demand. Please allow me to express my heartfelt thanks to the speech of the China Cotton Association, and it is also expected that the epidemic will end as soon as possible. Everyone can face each other to face each other. thank you all!