After the Spring Festival, although the production of domestic textile enterprises is basically normal, but with the gradual arrival of the peak season, the order did not appear peak season characteristics, superimposed cotton prices rose sharply, and the port cotton transaction did not change significantly. At the same time, various varieties of foreign cotton continued to arrive in large quantities, bonded cotton continued to "import more than export", and the inventory increased significantly compared with January. According to the summary data of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of the first half of March 2024, the port's uncleared foreign cotton inventory was about 480,000 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from January.

First, the price difference between internal and external cotton is greatly inverted

Since late January 2024, ICE cotton futures have opened a wave of rapid rising market under the short-term supply speculation, rising by a total of 20 cents. During the same period, the domestic textile market was lower than expected, and Zheng cotton futures fell back to 16,000 yuan/ton after rising slightly, resulting in a sharp upside down of the cotton price difference between inside and outside. As of early March 2024, the national cotton price index (B) is more than 1,000 yuan higher than the international cotton index (M), and the price advantage of foreign cotton is significantly weakened.

Second, the peak season to replenish the willingness to slightly increase

Before the Spring Festival, textile enterprises actively purchased raw materials to complete the orders after the festival, and the order situation after the festival has been weakened, but the stock of raw materials in the medium and long term is still insufficient, and with the arrival of the Jinsan silver four, the enterprise will continue to maintain the inventory. According to the industrial inventory survey of the National Cotton Market monitoring system, in early March 2024, 46.2% of enterprises were ready to purchase cotton, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; 47.4% held a wait-and-see attitude, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter; Companies that do not plan to purchase cotton accounted for 6.4%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month.

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